Detecting the economic cycle in Ecuador using time series techniques: a univariate and multivariate approach with empirical evidence applying the Hodrick-Prescott filter

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to identify and analyze economic cycles in Ecuador through the application of time series techniques, using both univariate and multivariate approaches. Official macroeconomic data such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), deposits, unemployment, and other relevant variables are used to detect cyclical patterns that characterize the country's economic behavior in recent years. A rigorous empirical analysis is conducted using the Hodrick-Prescott Filter to identify the expansion and contraction phases of the Ecuadorian economy. This research aims to contribute to a better understanding of national economic dynamics by providing valuable insights for the design and implementation of more timely and effective public policies. Additionally, the study incorporates theoretical elements from classical and Keynesian schools of thought to contextualize the results within a solid conceptual framework. The findings will serve as a basis for future research on the country's macroeconomic stability and its vulnerability to external shocks.